Crisis?

Part 5

For many independistes, Spain is robbing Catalonia.

“We generate a lot of money and the majority of that goes to Spain,” said pro-independence supporter Guillem Catena.

And it’s hard not to see their frustrations.

Despite only accounting for around 16 per cent of the population, Catalonia is Spain’s most prosperous region.

A booming tourist industry and splendid red wines are just two of the many ways that this province generated €203.6 billion in GDP last year or around 20 per cent of the total economy- that’s larger than the contribution that California makes to the United States.

A lot of that money is sent to the poorer regions of Spain in equalization payments; a lot of Catalans seemed fine with this arrangement, and then the 2008 financial crash hit Spain.

Spain was hit relatively hard by the crash and its effects reinvigorated the independence movement after the central government became reliant on Catalonia to keep it afloat.

But would a separation really mean that the region would be even richer?

Infographic made by DW

As usual, economics are hard to predict.

Experts are relatively in agreement that independence would be negative for both sides in the short-term.

Spain would lose around 2 per cent of its GDP, while Catalonia would see its economy shrink due to a need to build new state structures such as banks that carry a large price tag, according to a report commissioned by Business Insider.

Supporters of independence aren’t dissuaded by this.

“There will definitely be a transition period, but the final objective will be reached and Catalonia is a country with a lot of potential,” said independiste Ester Andres.

But, people on the other side worry about the impact that independence may have on the future of this region.

“When unilateral independence (shortly after the referendum, before the government stepped in) was declared, tons of business started leaving because they were scared. This idea of a worldwide free-market is not true,” said Gemma Morales.

Fundamentally, Catalonia’s long-term potential depends on two issues. How much of Spain’s debt they will be forced to take on and their membership in the EU.

The debt issue is impossible to predict and not something that is very well understood by people who are not versed in economics. The basic premise is that if Catalonia takes more than 16 per cent of Spain’s debt (ie a higher ratio of debt to population) then their new country would be unable to expand economically. However, in the reverse situation, Spain’s economy would likely collapse.

Even, the most optimistic of pro-independence supporters have a hard time believing that Spain would help them out in any situation related to independence.

“The problem is if we declare ourselves independent, other countries (Spain included) won’t support us. It would be difficult,” said Catena.

But, it’s at the level of the European Union where the real debate starts.

If Catalonia were to stay in the EU, then their trading would be unaffected which means that a recession wouldn’t be likely, according to economics professor Albert Banal-Estañol. But, staying in the European community seems nearly impossible.

In order for a country to get admitted, it needs to be unanimously approved by every member state- that means Spain would have to agree.

If Catalonia doesn’t stay a member state, then there could be real problems. Over 60 per cent of this region’s exports go to the EU, without membership, they would be subjected to enormous tariffs which could prove devastating to the region.

But, for independiste Pere Millan, Catalonia is a region that would prove too lucrative for the EU to ignore.

“It would be hard outside of the EU for a few years. But, I think we would eventually come to an agreement,” said Millan. “Catalonia has goods and services that would interest the EU. It may take 15-20 years to re-enter which may seem like a lot, but it’s nothing on a historical level.”

For Morales, she thinks such a cavalier approach to economics is extremely dangerous.

“Here they say Spain robs us,” said Morales. “But, that’s a lie, we have to tell them that without Spain there will be a crisis.”

“But when there would be independence, we would be plunged into a crisis which would help resurface the nationalists who would blame everything on Spain.”

Fundamentally, economic arguments are not going to change people’s minds on this issue because humans think with the heart and not with the head when it comes to their identity.

When Catena talks about being Catalan, you can sense his pride and his anger at Spain is just as clear. He will never identify as Spanish because for him they are an oppressor. He is only Catalan and nothing more. No talk about numbers or EU membership is going to sway him from his identity and from this “desire to be free.”

Yet, when Morales talks about identity, she places Spain and Catalonia as equal. She loves both. That’s why it pains her to see negative history being disseminated about Spain.

Economics is just something that both sides selectively use to beat the other with. They’re not going to accept either one’s analysis.

I think this speaks to just how deep this division has become in Catalan society because rational arguments won’t have an effect. I honestly don’t know how you could change someone’s mind when this opinion is so deeply tied to who they believe they are.

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Crisis?

For many independistes, Spain is robbing Catalonia.

​

“We generate a lot of money and the majority of that goes to Spain,” said pro-independence supporter Guillem Catena.

​

And it’s hard not to see their frustrations.

​

Despite only accounting for around 16 per cent of the population, Catalonia is Spain’s most prosperous region.

​

A booming tourist industry and splendid red wines are just two of the many ways that this province generated €203.6 billion in GDP last year or around 20 per cent of the total economy- that’s larger than the contribution that California makes to the United States.

​

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​

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A lot of that money is sent to the poorer regions of Spain in equalization payments; a lot of Catalans seemed fine with this arrangement, and then the 2008 financial crash hit Spain.

​

Spain was hit relatively hard by the crash and its effects reinvigorated the independence movement after the central government became reliant on Catalonia to keep it afloat.

​

But would a separation really mean that the region would be even richer?

As usual, economics are hard to predict.

​

Experts are relatively in agreement that independence would be negative for both sides in the short-term.

​

Spain would lose around 2 per cent of its GDP, while Catalonia would see its economy shrink due to a need to build new state structures such as banks that carry a large price tag, according to a report commissioned by Business Insider.

​

Supporters of independence aren’t dissuaded by this.

​

“There will definitely be a transition period, but the final objective will be reached and Catalonia is a country with a lot of potential,” said independiste Ester Andres.

​

But, people on the other side worry about the impact that independence may have on the future of this region.

​

“When unilateral independence (shortly after the referendum, before the government stepped in) was declared, tons of business started leaving because they were scared. This idea of a worldwide free-market is not true,” said Gemma Morales.

​

Fundamentally, Catalonia’s long-term potential depends on two issues. How much of Spain’s debt they will be forced to take on and their membership in the EU.

​

​

Even, the most optimistic of pro-independence supporters have a hard time believing that Spain would help them out in any situation related to independence.

​

“The problem is if we declare ourselves independent, other countries (Spain included) won’t support us. It would be difficult,” said Catena.

​

But, it’s at the level of the European Union where the real debate starts.

​

If Catalonia were to stay in the EU, then their trading would be unaffected which means that a recession wouldn’t be likely, according to economics professor Albert Banal-Estañol. But, staying in the European community seems nearly impossible.

​

In order for a country to get admitted, it needs to be unanimously approved by every member state- that means Spain would have to agree.

​

If Catalonia doesn’t stay a member state, then there could be real problems. Over 60 per cent of this region’s exports go to the EU, without membership, they would be subjected to enormous tariffs which could prove devastating to the region.

​

But, for independiste Pere Millan, Catalonia is a region that would prove too lucrative for the EU to ignore.

​

“It would be hard outside of the EU for a few years. But, I think we would eventually come to an agreement,” said Millan. “Catalonia has goods and services that would interest the EU. It may take 15-20 years to re-enter which may seem like a lot, but it’s nothing on a historical level.”

​

For Morales, she thinks such a cavalier approach to economics is extremely dangerous.

​

“Here they say Spain robs us,” said Morales. “But, that’s a lie, we have to tell them that without Spain there will be a crisis.”

​

“But when there would be independence, we would be plunged into a crisis which would help resurface the nationalists who would blame everything on Spain.”

Fundamentally, economic arguments are not going to change people’s minds on this issue because humans think with the heart and not with the head when it comes to their identity.

​

​

Yet, when Morales talks about identity, she places Spain and Catalonia as equal. She loves both. That’s why it pains her to see negative history being disseminated about Spain.

​

Economics is just something that both sides selectively use to beat the other with. They’re not going to accept either one’s analysis.

​

I think this speaks to just how deep this division has become in Catalan society because rational arguments won’t have an effect. I honestly don’t know how you could change someone’s mind when this opinion is so deeply tied to who they believe they are.